Return of Russia as Superpower

After the collapse of the USSR in 1991, Russia, its successor, was almost ¼ smaller, and the population of the Russian Federation was reduced by almost 150 million compared to the demographic resources of the USSR. Along with the demise of the USSR in 1991, Russia lost almost one fourth of its territory

The breakup of the Soviet empire was a more complicated process, conditioned by the internal and external situation stemming from the international and legal position of the USSR in the world. The decline of the state took the elites by surprise, they felt helpless and lost.

For these were the elites who had set the ideological tone of the empire and implemented the communist party’s policy in society and the economy. Unlike the elites in Central and Eastern Europe, and the Baltic States, who were in favour of integration with the Euro-Atlantic structures, the Russian elites experienced a lack of ideological orientation. The only idea that came to their minds was to strengthen the state in all spheres of its functioning and restore its position in the world.

In the foreign policy of the Russian Federation (RF) after the demise of the USSR, two constantly present and interweaving tendencies can be distinguished. The first one results from the assumption that the contemporary world is unipolar, with the US in the leading role. In such a situation, Russia should be as close as possible to the centre and part of the American-Russian duet deciding about the international order. Such thinking was dominant at the time of the so-called honeymoon in relations with the West during Yeltsin’s presidency. 

Such an attitude was also convincing for Vladimir Putin at the beginning of his first term of office. His first ally was to be Tony Blair, with whom the Russian president intended to build friendly relations. Putin also believed that it was possible to have very good relations with the West, and especially with the USA. At the same time, he knew that the West did not understand Russian specificity, although he did not perceive it as an obstacle. He believed that it was necessary to meet, convince and explain the position of Russia and its problems. At that time, Putin accepted visits from every western leader and every minister of foreign affairs. He devoted more time to them than the protocol, and sometimes more than was common sense  He adopted a similar attitude when the anti-terrorist coalition was being established after the 11 September attacks in 2001.

Vladimir Putin was the first to declare support for the American effort in the fight against the terrorist threat by emphasising the availability of all the forces and materiel at the disposal of Russia. “General Karabilnikov’s, the Chief of the GRU (the Main Intelligence Directorate), visit to Washington in February 2002 was a confirmation of this commitment. During the visit, several important meetings were held, inter alia, with the Chief of the Joint Staff, General Richard B. Myers, as well as the director of the Defense Intelligence Agency, Vice-Admiral Thomas R. Wilson. 

Representatives of a different strand in foreign policy claim that the essence of the contemporary world is its multipolar character and Russia should play the role of an important centre in this configuration. 

This was probably the first time that the president said that the world should be multipolar. He also asked for appreciation of the presidential diplomacy carried out without neckties, and ascertained – using an erotic comparison – that Russia did not lie under the United States (Mleczin 2011, p. 1198).

A vivid signal of a shift in Russian foreign policy appeared at a security conference in Munich in 2007, when Putin clearly defined Russian interests and firmly stated that he accepted neither being preached at by the West nor by the unipolar world. The world is multipolar and Russia has its own interests in it, which must be taken into consideration.

One of the factors determining such assertive stance of the Russian leader is the conviction that Russian power is, to a much extent, determined by its territorial potential. The Russian Federation, which constitutes 10% of the surface of the globe, is convinced that it should have an influence on the situation in Europe, Asia, the Arctic, the Pacific and the Middle East. The territorial vastness reinforces Russia’s belief that it is stronger than the United States.

The president of Russia also emphasises the civilisational uniqueness of his country, which can also be proved by the fact there are over one hundred different nationalities living on the territory of the RF. When Russia holds talks with the European Union, it presents itself as a European country, but during talks with, for example, China it is Asian. Such a feeling of uniqueness makes its mark on the activities of offensive and defensive character. On the one hand, it gives Russia a quasi-moral right to become engaged in all world affairs, all the more as it is a member of every important international organisation. On the other hand, it does not allow foreign ideologies to be adopted, including western democratic liberalism.

Coming back to the main idea, Russia has never accepted the unipolar international order which emerged after the breakup of the cold-war world. If it accepted and applied tips and advice from the West, it was the result of its weakness. It tried to resist ineffectively, but the resistance was only symbolic. Deploying commandos from Bosnia to Kosovo at the time of conflict in this province did not dispose the West to change its course of action and the peace mission was continued. Protesting with France and Germany against the war in Iraq in 2003 did not prevent the US operation in the country, although there was no United Nations Security Council resolution clearly accepting the use of force. Putin’s speech in Munich, mentioned earlier, was a clear declaration that Russia would not accept the rules of conduct in international relations if they were established without its participation and agreement. War operations in Georgia were to show that the Kremlin’s attitude was invariant and Russia would not hesitate to use force to adhere to its beliefs and rules.

After the presidential elections in 2012, Putin not only stressed the necessity to make Russia one of the centres of the multilateral global order, but without any restraints he also began to articulate the need for a radical change of the rules of conduct in the international environment. 

Russia does not only want changes which it would find satisfactory. It also advocates the creation of new international institutions which would replace the existing ones, dominated by the USA and their allies. It seems that the present conflict between Russia and the West concerns not only the expansion of influence in the classical meaning, but the conflict among international organisations.

Although it is officially stated in Russia that the multipolar system is the ideal model, in fact it is about returning to a quasi-bipolar world, where only Russia and the United States count, and other states are a little lower in the international hierarchy. The Americans receive such signals at almost every occasion. In greetings sent to Obama on the national holiday in July 2015, Putin expressed his hope that the two countries could tackle the most complex international problems, effectively counteract global threats and challenges, observing the rules of equality and mutual respect for their interests (Congratulations to US President… 2015).

Russia realises that it is far behind the USA in terms of the economy. R, Russia decided that its status should be ensured by the armed forces being capable of reacting rapidly in every corner of the world. This can be attained, inter alia, by programmes of modernisation of the Russian Armed Forces, multiple military training courses run independently or as part of the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO), and Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO).

Although Russia wants to demonstrate its military potential and operational readiness, as well as capability of fast reaction, not everything is ideal. According to Ukrainian intelligence, it was possible to observe many problems and mistakes during the manoeuvres. On the day when the exercise commenced, only one out of five artillery squadrons was partly prepared to perform the combat tasks on the Pruboy range.

Since long, Russia is actively working to rebuild and modernize its military. Despite facing significant challenges, including economic sanctions and a decline in oil prices, Russia has made significant investments in its military, increasing its defense spending and implementing various modernization programs.

Russia has already made significant progress in areas like:

1. Nuclear capabilities: Russia has upgraded its nuclear arsenal, including the development of new intercontinental ballistic missiles and strategic bombers.

2. Conventional forces: Russia has modernized its ground, air, and naval forces, introducing new weapon systems and equipment.

3. Technological advancements: Russia has invested in areas like unmanned systems, cyber warfare, and electronic warfare.

4. Military doctrine: Russia has updated its military doctrine, emphasizing the use of precision-strike capabilities and non-kinetic means of warfare.

While it's difficult to predict the future, Russia's efforts to rebuild its military and regain its status as a major power are likely to continue. However, the pace and success of these efforts will depend on various factors, including Russia's economic situation, political stability, and the geopolitical landscape and above all to remove obstacles like corruption، sanctions، morality، leadership، development of new initiatives، greater cohesion and economic integration and putin's recent visit to china for defence military pact fostering mutual relations and common interests and deeper penetration in areas where america has got their interests or stakes۔

Nobody negates the fact that Russia is still one of the largest countries in the world. Nonetheless, it is much smaller and weaker than the USSR. By means of assertive, not to say aggressive, anti-western politics it demands to be recognized as a superpower eligible to decide on the international order. However, in the contemporary world, a territory decides about its superpower status to a much smaller extent. What counts more is the dynamics of the economic development, the application of advanced technology, and the use of human resources.

Russia’s domestic problems, one of the most important being the growing political radicalism of the followers of Islam, are also significant. This problem will not be easy to tackle since 15% of 142 million Russian citizens are Muslim. Thus, the foundations of the Russian superpower status are weak, and the popular anti-western narrative is not conducive to strengthening the Kremlin’s.

On the other hand China is moving fast to fulfill its aspiration to become new super power competing all the other stakeholders and would not support or favor any multipolar world order.  China's deeper penetration and economic cooperation in every region irrespective of religious or ideological beliefs reflects China's priorities to gain world supremacy  unmatched and unchallengeable۔