China's strategy on Taiwan is centered around reunification, with a blockade or invasion being potential measures to achieve this goal. A blockade would aim to strangle Taiwan's economy and limit its international engagement, while an invasion would involve a full-scale military assault to capture key infrastructure and cities. China's military modernization, including advanced missile systems and amphibious capabilities, has enhanced its ability to execute such operations.
The strategy also involves psychological operations, disinformation campaigns, and diplomatic pressure to erode Taiwan's resolve and international support. However, the risks of a blockade or invasion are high, with potential retaliation from the US and other like-minded countries, and severe economic and humanitarian consequences for the region. China's strategy is shaped by its "One China" principle, which views Taiwan as an integral part of its territory, and its determination to prevent Taiwan's formal independence.
Experts believe that China is more likely to impose a quarantine or blockade instead of an invasion ¹. Here are some key points to summarize China's strategy towards Taiwan.
Most experts believe China can execute a quarantine or blockade of Taiwan but do not think China could effectively execute an invasion.China's military, despite its advancements, still lacks the capability to successfully execute a full-scale invasion of Taiwan, which has a robust defense system and a formidable military of its own.
Taiwan experts view China as less militarily capable of executing a quarantine, blockade, or invasion of Taiwan.An invasion would result in significant losses for both China and Taiwan, including human casualties, economic damage, and international condemnation.
- Lower Taiwan Confidence in Support from the United States or U.S. Allies and Partners: Taiwan experts are less confident in U.S. intervention and have even lower confidence that U.S. allies and partners would defend Taiwan.
- Dynamics after Taiwan Elections: Most respondents do not believe recent efforts to manage U.S.-China tensions have changed the likelihood of a Taiwan Strait crisis. About 67 percent of U.S. experts and 57 percent of Taiwan experts believed a Taiwan Strait crisis is likely in 2024.
China's preference for a blockade over invasion stems from various strategic, economic, and political considerations:
China and Taiwan have a deeply intertwined economy, with Taiwan being a crucial partner in China's global supply chain. Disrupting this relationship would harm China's own economic interests.
Invading Taiwan would lead to severe diplomatic isolation and potential sanctions from the international community, damaging China's global influence and reputation. A blockade allows China to exert pressure on Taiwan without incurring the costs of an invasion. It can also be presented as a more "reasonable" measure to the international community.
China may opt for a gradual escalation, starting with a limited blockade or quarantine, to test the responses of Taiwan, the US, and other allies.A blockade can serve as a deterrent to Taiwan, discouraging it from declaring independence or strengthening ties with the US.
China may use a blockade as leverage to force Taiwan into negotiations on Beijing's terms.
By choosing a blockade over invasion, China aims to achieve its goals while minimizing risks and maximizing diplomatic maneuverability. However, this strategy relies on various assumptions and is not without its own risks and uncertainties.
China's focus on a blockade strategy in the Taiwan context despite its global presence is driven by several factors:
Taiwan is a crucial location in the Asia-Pacific region, and controlling it would significantly enhance China's military and economic influence.
Reunifying with Taiwan is a long-standing Chinese Communist Party (CCP) goal, and achieving it would bolster the CCP's legitimacy and President Xi Jinping's legacy.
China seeks to assert its dominance in the Asia-Pacific region, and a successful blockade or reunification with Taiwan would demonstrate its military and political power.
China is concerned about the strengthening relationship between the US and Taiwan, including arms sales and diplomatic exchanges, which it sees as a challenge to its sovereig
A blockade would allow China to leverage its economic influence to pressure Taiwan into negotiations, as Taiwan relies heavily on trade.
China believes that the international community, including the US, might not intervene decisively in a Taiwan conflict, especially if China frames it as an "internal" issue.
China has modernized its military, including its naval and air capabilities, which enables it to enforce a blockade effectively.
By demonstrating its ability to enforce a blockade, China aims to deter Taiwan from declaring independence and discourage the US and other allies from intervening.
While China has a significant global presence, its priorities and strategies vary by region. In the Taiwan context, a blockade offers a means to achieve its goals without resorting to a full-scale invasion,
China's blockade strategy aims to exert pressure on Taiwan, but gaining control over the island through this approach is uncertain and faces challenges:
Taiwan has a robust economy, military, and political system, allowing it to sustain.
The reaction of America and NATO to a Chinese blockade of Taiwan would likely be swift.
The US would strongly condemn China's actions as a violation of international law and Taiwan's sovereignty.The US might deploy additional military assets to the region, such as aircraft carriers, to demonstrate its commitment to Taiwan's defense.
The US could impose sanctions on Chinese goods and products.The US would likely provide military aid and assistance to Taiwan to help it resist the blockade.
NATO would issue a statement condemning China's actions as a threat to regional stability and NATO member countries would apply diplomatic pressure on China to lift the blockade.
The US and NATO might form an international coalition to pressure China to lift the blockade.
The US and NATO countries might impose economic sanctions on China, targeting key sectors like technology and finance.
The US and NATO might provide military escorts for Taiwan's ships to ensure safe passage.
The international community might provide humanitarian aid to Taiwan to alleviate the impact of blockade.
America's support for Taiwan is based on a complex set of historical, political, and strategic factors, despite China's rightful claims. The US committed to providing Taiwan with the means to defend itself, without recognizing Taiwan as a sovereign state.
The US acknowledges China's claim to Taiwan but doesn't recognize Beijing's authority over the island.Taiwan is a democratic ally, and the US supports its democratic system and human rights record.
Taiwan's location in the Asia-Pacific region makes it a crucial partner for the US in maintaining regional stability and security. The US has significant trade and investment interests in Taiwan.
The US is concerned about China's growing military power and territorial claims in the region, and supports Taiwan as a counterbalance.
The US has a long history of supporting Taiwan, dating back to the Chinese Civil War in the 1940s.
While China's claim to Taiwan has some historical basis, the US supports Taiwan's autonomy and democracy, and seeks to maintain a balance of power in the region. The situation is complex, with multiple competing interests and historical narratives at play.
The United Nations Security Council (UNSC) has not intervened to resolve the Taiwan-China issue for several reasons.
The issue is highly politicized, with China viewing Taiwan as a domestic matter and the US having a long-standing policy of supporting Taiwan's security. China has veto power in the UNSC, which it would likely use to block any resolution favorable to Taiwan
The UNSC recognizes the People's Republic of China (PRC) as the sole legitimate representative of China, making it difficult to address Taiwan's concerns.Taiwan is not a UN member state, limiting its ability to participate in UNSC discussions.
The UNSC has focused on more pressing global crises, such as conflicts in the Middle East and Africa. The US and other countries have preferred bilateral diplomatic efforts to resolve the issue, rather than involving the UNSC.
The Taiwan-China issue is a complex historical, political, and sovereignty dispute, making a UNSC resolution challenging to achieve.
The UNSC's inaction has led to a stalemate, with the situation managed through a delicate balance of power and diplomatic efforts between the US, China, and Taiwan.
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