A recent study by the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) reveals that artificial intelligence (AI) will significantly impact the global job market. The report estimates that 43 million jobs in the US will be affected within the next year due to AI advancements, increasing to 60 million in five years and potentially 70 million in a decade. While these figures represent job vulnerability rather than direct losses, the study emphasizes the need for proactive planning to mitigate AI's impact on the workforce.
According to Eric Parrado, chief economist at the IDB and co-author of the report, "There must be a plan for the effect that AI could have." Globally, the study predicts that AI will influence 980 million jobs within a year, approximately 28% of the worldwide workforce, rising to 38% in five years and 44% soon. The AI index covers over 750 occupations and utilizes vast datasets to assess potential AI disruptions.
The study's findings suggest that women and low-skilled specialists are particularly vulnerable to job displacement. Women are disproportionately represented in office, administrative, service, and support roles, which are more susceptible to automation. Approximately 40% of women face the risk of job displacement, compared to 38% of men. Lower-paid workers in the US are also at greater risk.
Researchers warn that AI's potential to exacerbate global inequality requires urgent policy action. Jobs requiring emotional skills are less likely to be replaced, while roles such as phone operators, telemarketers, credit analysts, machine operators, and travel agents are among the most vulnerable. For instance, up to 92% of phone operator positions could be impacted.
On the other hand, certain professions, including those in sports, teaching, and firefighting, are expected to remain more resilient to AI changes. The report's index also breaks down tasks within each occupation to identify varying degrees of vulnerability. For example, radiologists are more likely to face job displacement compared to clinicians, maxillofacial surgeons, or nurses.
To address this significant shift, Parrado advocates for substantial investment in education and retraining programs focused on developing skills complementary to AI, such as critical thinking, creativity, and emotional intelligence. He also emphasizes the need to integrate AI into school curricula, stating, "This technological change is staying put." By adapting educational programs and promoting proactive planning, governments and organizations can mitigate the impact of AI on the workforce and create a more equitable transition.
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