Israeli military vehicles cross the fence into the buffer zone with Syria near the Druze village of Majdal Shams in the Israeli-annexed Golan Heights on December 10, 2024.
Following the overthrow of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, Israel has invaded its neighbor's territory. Since Assad's dramatic flight to Russia, Israel has attacked Syria more than 400 times and launched a military incursion into the buffer zone that has separated the two countries since 1974, despite UN protests. The attacks come as the country seeks to break away from 53 years of dynastic family rule.
Israel has also attacked neighboring Lebanon in recent months, continuing a war that has been accused of genocide against the beleaguered Gaza residents. Israel has long justified its attacks on Syria by claiming that it was eliminating Iranian military targets. But Iran itself has said its troops are not currently stationed in Syria.
Israel says it is now focused on destroying Syria's military infrastructure. Israel claims it is trying to prevent weapons from falling into the hands of "extremists," but this definition applies to a rotating list of actors, most recently including the Syrian opposition group, the main Syrian opposition group that led the campaign to overthrow al-Assad. Israel said it struck military facilities, including arms depots, ammunition depots, airports, naval bases and research centers. Israel has also deployed military forces to the buffer zone along the Golan Heights that separates Syria and Israel.
The area was officially designated a demilitarized zone under a 1974 UN-brokered ceasefire agreement. Israel occupies about two-thirds of the Golan Heights, with a UN-controlled buffer zone covering a narrow area of 400 square kilometers. The rest is controlled by Syria. Syrian security forces also reported that Israeli tanks were advancing from the Golan Heights 10 kilometers into Syrian territory toward Qatana, near the capital.
Israeli military officials deny any such incursion. In addition to more than 100 attacks on the capital, Israel also carried out strikes in Al-Mayadeen in the east, Tartus and Masyaf in the northwest, the Qusayr border crossing with Lebanon, and the Halhalla military airport in the south.
HTS leader Ahmed al-Sharah, alias Abu Mohammad al-Julani. Israel's justification for this attack on a sovereign state is that it is acting to defend Israel. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told reporters on Monday that the former Syrian territory along the Golan Heights, which has been a demilitarized zone since 1974, will remain part of Israel "forever."
Since , Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa'ar has defended Israel's attack, saying Israel's intention was simply to strike suspected chemical weapons and long-range missile sites, thus preventing their occupation by militant groups opposed to Israel's ongoing attacks on its neighbors.
In a briefing for foreign media, Sa'ar said Israel was acting "as a precautionary measure." "That's why we are targeting remaining chemical weapons and strategic weapons systems, such as long-range rockets and missiles, to make sure they don't fall into the hands of extremists," he said. It's not yet clear what Israel wants from Syria.
The government has not made any statements indicating its intentions beyond saying it will "act in the interest of Israel's defense." But some prominent Israeli figures have expressed their views on what should happen next. Benny Gantz, leader of Netanyahu's National Unity Party, which opposes Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, told reporters that this is an "opportunity of historic proportions" for Israel. He called on policymakers to "expand ties with Syria's Druze, Kurdish and other groups," suggesting Israel could build ties with groups that have traditionally opposed the coalition of rebels since the fall of al-Assad.
The Times of Israel interviewed a researcher and former Israeli military official who suggested expanding on Gantz's proposal and dividing Syria into a series of states, each of which would be free to cooperate with outside actors, including Israel. "Modern nation-states in the Middle East have failed," said Anan Wahab, a former colonel who identifies as a member of the Druze minority.
After rebel forces overthrew former President Bashar al-Assad, Israel is seeking to seize more Syrian land near the Golan Heights. Israel wants to set up a "sterile" zone in southern Syria, launching 480 airstrikes According to the Israeli military, waves of airstrikes have hit military sites across Syria in the past 48 hours.
What has Iran been signalling since Syrian President Bashar al-Assad was overthrown? As a staunch ally of Assad for decades, Iran must decide how to deal with the new Syria. Personal memorabilia of Bashar al-Assad on display in a room at Qasr al-Shaab "People's Palace" in Damascus, Syria, after rebel forces captured the capital and overthrew al-Assad, Dec. 10, 2024,
Iran has said it wants to maintain ties with Syria after the ouster of its key ally Bashar al-Assad, but the rebels' stance towards Israel is crucial. The Iranian government has not commented on reports that it has established direct dialogue with the militant groups that overthrew Syria's ruling family, which had been allied with Iran for more than four decades.
The government spokesman Fatemeh Mohajerani called for "respect for Syria's territorial integrity" and said the Syrian people should determine their own fate. He said "distance from the Zionist regime" would be a key determining factor in future relations between Iran and Syria.
Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Commander Hossein Salami told parliament's closing session members on Tuesday that there are currently no Iranian troops in Syria. The general insisted that the withdrawal does not mean Iran's power has weakened, and said Iranian forces will be present in Syria until the last moments of Al-Assad's regime, according to lawmakers in attendance.
Iran has supported Al-Assad since the Syrian war broke out in 2011, providing him with fighters, weapons and military advice in the form of a Guards presence aimed at keeping Al-Assad in power and strengthening the regional "axis of resistance" against Iran, Israel and the United States. Government spokesman Mohajerani said 4,000 Iranian nationals had returned from Syria aboard 10 flights of heavily sanctioned Iranian airline Mahan Air since the fall of the Assad regime.
Asked about the huge investments Iran has made in supporting Assad and the economic toll it is taking on the Iranian people, she insisted that the tens of billions of dollars spent by Tehran were in support of its "national interests." "Stop the crimes against Syria" Before President al-Assad fled, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi reiterated the rebel attacks led by the anti-government militant group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) as an "American and Zionist plot" aimed at weakening the region in the face of a civil war.
The aftermath will further destabilize Israel's war on Gaza. Iranian Revolutionary Guards Commander Hossein Salami (center) during a closed-door meeting of parliament to discuss developments in Syria, December 10, 2024 [Handout via Tasnim News Agency] After the rebels overthrew the regime, the Iranian Foreign Ministry instead focused on rhetoric condemning Israel, saying Israel was "taking advantage of the complex situation in Syria to escalate the massacres in Gaza."
Iran's statement came as Israel has bombed Syrian infrastructure hundreds of times since Sunday, hitting at least 250 targets across Syria on Monday night alone, in what Israeli media said was the largest offensive operation ever carried out by its air force. Israel destroyed fighter jets and military helicopters at an air base, struck a military research center and an arms depot, and attacked Syrian military ships. Israeli troops and tanks have also taken advantage of Syria's political turmoil to penetrate deep into the country, coming within 20 kilometers of the capital, Damascus.
Israel continues to insist that it is only expanding its occupation of Syrian territory to ensure its own security, as "extremists" may seize border areas. Iran, which has supported President Assad until the last moment, said in a statement on Monday night that it would "use all regional and international capabilities to thwart the Zionist regime's crimes against Syria," but did not provide further details.
Iranian mission damaged Iran also sent a letter to the UN Security Council expressing deep concern and condemnation of the attack on the Syrian embassy on Sunday after the overthrow of the Assad regime. "Amid intensifying activities of militant groups in Damascus, militants stormed and attacked the Iranian embassy, causing serious damage, vandalism, theft of documents and documents, and vandalism," the Iranian embassy wrote.
The report said that on November 29, "militant groups attacked the Iranian consulate in Aleppo with short-range grenades, putting consulate personnel at risk." The consulate was then "attacked and damaged" after the mission had to be evacuated. Iran has not officially blamed HTS or any other specific group for the actions.
After a video surfaced online showing the destroyed embassy and the destruction of large statues of assassinated leaders Qassem Soleimani and Hassan Nasrallah, Iranian President Araghchi said some civilians also appeared to be involved in the actions. It is unclear if and when Iranian missions abroad will be reopened. "Blow to Putin's prestige":
What the collapse of Al-Assad means for Russia Russia is protecting Syria's longtime leader, but Russian ambitions in the Middle East are likely to continue, analysts say. Al-Assad's defection is Putin's message to his "friends": analysis After 13 years of misery that have characterized the Syrian civil war, the country's former president Bashar al-Assad has fled Damascus for Moscow.
"Following consultations with numerous participants in the armed conflict in the Syrian Arab Republic, Mr. Bashar al-Assad has decided to step down as President of Syria and leave the country. He has instructed his government to transfer power peacefully," the Russian Foreign Ministry said .
The statement further clarified that while Russia is not involved in the negotiations, it is "in contact with all factions of the Syrian opposition." Russia's official use of the word "opposition" to describe the groups currently controlling Damascus , Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov vehemently described these groups as "terrorists" in an interview with Al Jazeera.
Russia emerged as a key ally of the Assad regime after entering the conflict in 2015. From providing diplomatic support at the United Nations to committing a large air force to defend the regime, analysts credit Russia with keeping Assad in power.
This support has allowed President Vladimir Putin to significantly expand the Russian naval base in Tartus, established during the 1971 Syrian-Soviet agreement, and the air base in nearby Hmeimim, which the country has operated since 2015.
Both bases in Latakia province on Syria's Mediterranean coast have proven crucial to Russia's international ambitions, serving as launch pads for operations supporting the Syrian regime as well as bases from which Moscow can extend its influence across the Mediterranean and Africa. "Both bases are important to Russia," said Mark Galeotti, director of Mayak Intelligence, a UK-based research and consulting firm specializing in Russia, and author of several books on Putin and Russia. Despite Moscow's involvement in Ukraine, its operations in Libya, Sudan and Central Africa are based primarily out of its base in Latakia.
"Turkey does not allow warships to pass through the Bosphorus," Galeotti continued. "This means that without a Russian base in Tartus, the only way to project naval power into the Mediterranean is via the Baltic Sea, which is far from ideal," he said. "Similarly, without the Hmeimim airbase, the provision of air support for operations in Africa would depend on Turkey's goodwill, which is unlikely to please the Kremlin," he said. At least for now, the integrity of both bases and their personnel appears to be secured, Kremlin officials told Russian news agency Interfax.
The Kremlin official did not say how long the security would last. Some Russian war bloggers, many of whom are considered close to the military, warned that the situation around the bases remains tense. By fleeing to Moscow, Al-Assad joins the ranks of other high-profile figures who have fled to the Russian capital. The late Yugoslav leader Slobodan Milosovic lived under Russian protection.
Several Georgian officials wanted in Tbilisi for acts before the 2003 Rose Revolution also fled to Russia, as did American whistleblower Edward Snowden. But Alexei Mouraviev of Australia's Curtin University warned that while Al-Assad may have lost his practical value to the Kremlin, the symbolism still has value. "I think it's less about symbolism and more about how effectively Putin responds to people who are personally loyal to him," he told Al Jazeera. "And Assad made his personal loyalty to Putin clear over the years, including by supporting Russia's invasion of Ukraine. "This is a signal to Russia's other clients and friends in the region, the Gulf, the Middle East, Africa and Asia," he said. "We will not abandon you as long as you remain loyal to Russia. We will not do what the Americans are doing in some places. Leave the rest to us." Assad's overthrow was not accompanied by the kind of bloodshed Syria has experienced since the attempted revolution that sparked civil war in 2011. "I know
Russia met with Iran and Turkey in Doha ," Galeotti said of talks between the two of the Russian regime's most important allies and Ankara's opposition on the sidelines of the Doha Forum in Qatar. "Perhaps the withdrawal was agreed for Assad to avoid a brutal final stand in Damascus if he fails to get out," he said. "It may also make sense for HTS to open a new dialogue with Moscow, even if Iran will always remain an enemy," he said, referring to the powerful Syrian U.S.-led rebel group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham. Russia, Turkey, the U.S. and the European Union consider it a terrorist organization.
"A dictator and an ally of Putin is a minus" Critics of Putin and al-Assad celebrated the downfall of the Syrian leader and what they saw as a possible end to Russian ambitions in the Middle East. "A dictator and an ally of Putin is missing," Ilya Yashin, a prominent Russian opposition politician, wrote in X. Former Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said, "Putin threw Assad under the bus to extend the war in Ukraine. His resources are scarce and not as strong as they seem.
” But according to some observers, as long as Russia can maintain its base in Latakia, its broader political goals and its position in the region, its ambitions will likely remain unaffected. “The Middle East is pretty important to Russia,” said Paul Salem of the Middle East Institute. He cited some of Russia’s most important regional relationships, including energy trade with the Gulf states, sales of civilian nuclear equipment and a decline in Russian arms sales due to the costly war in Ukraine, and said all these factors are unlikely to affect the two countries. The loss of a divisive ally. “So the loss (of Syria) doesn’t really make that much difference,” he said. Even Russia’s 2015 deployment to support Assad was not intended as part of Russia’s broader ambitions in the Middle East, but rather as a counterweight to U.S. regional ambitions and repeated attempts at regime change in Iraq, Libya and elsewhere, Salem noted. He predicted that Russia's most important regional relationship, with Iran, would remain intact. "The defeat of Assad is certainly a blow to Putin's overall prestige, but it doesn't really change Putin's situation in the Middle East in general," Salem said.
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